Economic Chaos: Zanu PF`s clear pathway to 2023 election victory
Zanu PF survived hyper-inflation running into the millions and millions percent, when Mobutu Sese Seko`s government couldn`t survive 91,000 percent inflation. Why?... How?
Despite the IMF predicting Zimbabwe`s 2022 growth outlook to come in at 3.5%, the mandarins in government still insist that Zimbabwe will pull-off a 5.5% expansion this year. The jury is still out on this however, especially seeing as life for the “average Joe” is still daunting and hasn’t substantially improved.
And as the year wears on, this situation will likely not change. In fact, in an earlier post, I mentioned how the manner in which the current administration has pushed large swathes of the population into poverty, borders on criminality.
Now, heading into an election year, the case for a change in government is strong one would think, all else being equal. Local and central government service delivery is virtually non-existent. Inflation is running rampant, real wages and incomes have plummeted, and unemployment remains stubbornly high. However, as history has so often taught us, these factors will likely not trigger a change in government for several reasons.
Not wholly unpopular
The first, widely unpopular reason, for which I will more than likely cop some blowback, is that Zanu PF is not wholly unpopular. Closely allied to this, is the fact that people are not yet sufficiently uncomfortable.
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Zanu PF`s astonishing longevity is in part attributable to how it craftily packages its propaganda messaging, endearing it to people in the process. Simple messages, and the same mistruths are repeated over and over again, to the point that people start believing them. Think of “sanctions”, “economic saboteurs”, the “regime change agenda.”
This strategy delivers the desired outcome in that people eventually believe the messaging. Zanu PF has been surprisingly good at convincing people that there is some sinister “behind-the-scenes” force responsible for the country`s problems, or that the West is simply after Zimbabwe`s mineral resources for instance. You would be shocked, at the number of intelligent people who believe all this.
Additionally, the ruling party`s usual modus operandi of megaphone justice, politicization of state institutions, and constant reinvention of facts, all contribute to casting Zanu PF in favourable light, in certain quarters.
People not yet uncomfortable
Turning to the point of people not being uncomfortable enough. Zanu PF rides on the complexity of human nature and how people generally always tend to complain, even during the good times. Recall the bread price riots in 1998?
It is undisputable that Zimbabweans are far worse off economically now than in 1998 given the decades-long economic crisis that has gripped the country, yet most people now are surprisingly content with even the simplest of things, such as “just stable prices,” or a “barely effective Zupco monopoly plugging the gap left by kombis,” for instance. This gives Zanu PF the green light to advance its populist agenda with little pushback from the public.
Economic chaos
Economic chaos creates opportunities for entrepreneurs. If Zesa fails continually for example, a generator or solar geyser salesman will emerge and maximise on this opportunity. Similarly, if a residential area has inconsistent, or even zero water supplies, this will spur the rise of bulk water delivery and borehole drilling companies.
If you cannot find something you want in a hardware store, the salesperson will take you to the back and introduce you to someone who can “find” what you are looking for – quickly. Two people suddenly have “jobs”, instead of one. And so on. These inefficiencies inevitably create a system supporting people who would otherwise be unemployed or unemployable, and in so doing prolongs Zanu P`s survival.
On the economic front, diaspora remittances will continue providing balance of payments support for the country, and a much needed lifeline for the vast majority of the population. In 2021, official remittances averaged US$100 million a month, totaling US$1.2 billion, an amount that could be significantly higher, accounting for remittances through unofficial channels.
Remittance flows tend to be more stable than capital flows, and they also are prone to counter cyclicality — increasing during economic downturns. Though this year`s remittances are less likely to exceed last year`s levels, they will be substantial enough to provide an economic lifeline to people, and continue masking government`s policy shortcomings.
These are some of the reasons why Zanu PF survived hyper-inflation running into the sextillions, when Mobutu Sese Seko`s government couldn`t survive 91,000% inflation. Local companies will continue to survive because inflation to a degree, covers up most mistakes and poor performance, through the constant price adjustments.
Inflation also significantly cuts down company wage bills through erosion of real wages. Private individuals on the other hand also thrive off the government induced chaos. So against seemingly insurmountable odds, the economy keeps chugging along. And in all this, the major beneficiary is Zanu PF, and come 2023, the status quo will likely remain.
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Unfortunate, but this prediction is more than likely true! Great read